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Money

Who pays for the buildout, who profits, and what that financing structure commits everyone to.

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Essays & snapshots

Binance hack: who decides when stolen crypto is frozen?

Stablecoin issuers froze about $3bn of the funds stolen from Binance within hours, according to Binance. Their freezing powers are written down. What outsiders cannot see is how those powers are applied, and who can challenge a decision.

Essay5 min read

Washington wants to win the AI race. Rome says the race is the problem.

American AI policy begins from the premise that there is a race with China and that America must win it. Pope Leo XIV's first encyclical begins from the premise that treating AI as a race is itself the danger. Peter Thiel thinks that makes the pope an ally of Beijing. Underneath the row sits a question neither side can avoid: who gets a say in what these machines are for?

Essay9 min read

The balance sheet is strategic infrastructure

American technology companies will spend around three quarters of a trillion dollars this year on infrastructure they are no longer financing entirely from their own cash flow. What fills the gap is a financial system, and the question of which country has the better one has quietly become a question about which country gets the future it is paying for.

Essay7 min read

Nobody wants to own the chips

Alphabet has written $43.8 billion of backstops on data centres it does not own, against which it carries a fair-value liability of $815 million. Nvidia has just answered with $500 billion of financing platforms of its own. The AI contest is still reported as a race between models and chips. The more consequential competition is now over who can supply the cheapest credit, and where the risk settles once the arranging is finished.

Essay · Infrastructure8 min read

Who can afford to lose money on AI

The gap between what frontier AI earns and what is being spent to make it possible is enormous, and it is usually reported using the most flattering measure available. Read it with the right numbers and the interesting question is no longer whether AI is a bubble. It is that one lab has just shown the revenue can arrive, and that the structures built while everyone waited for it will outlast the waiting.

Essay8 min read

Why geothermal power still begins with a very expensive hole

In Lanzarote, the residual heat of an eighteenth-century eruption cooks lunch for tourists. A few hundred kilometres west, an Icelandic-led consortium has begun drilling beneath Tenerife to find out whether the same kind of heat can carry an island's electricity system — with roughly half the exploration bill paid by the public.

Essay15 min read

Compute as currency

Chips, models and cloud capacity are no longer ordinary exports but instruments of statecraft—granted to allies, withheld from rivals, traded for investment and alignment. Three developments in recent weeks suggest the transactional era has arrived; the harder question is how long such leverage survives being used.

Essay · Geopolitics4 min read

AI's money is starting to move in circles

A handful of firms are financing each other's AI ambitions, and the same dollars increasingly appear to travel a short loop between supplier, customer and investor.