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Statecraft

Silver Fox: China says it has arrested 63 malware suspectsPart 2 of 2

China's Ministry of Public Security says it has put 63 people under criminal compulsory measures over Silver Fox, a Chinese-language malware operation that stole from Chinese firms. No charges, trials or sentences have been reported. Part 2 of the Hackers vs the state series asks whether Beijing is punishing the crime or the victim list.

Essay4 min read

VasyGrek arrests: how Russia polices its own hackersPart 1 of 2

The VasyGrek case fits a pattern in which the line Russia draws around cybercrime runs through the victim, not the crime. A rare arrest of a group that hit Russian firms shows where tolerance may end, and how little the public record says about why the state acted now.

Essay6 min read

A crime gang with a grievance

ShinyHunters says it hacked the FBI's recruitment systems in retaliation for a public warning, and wants the warning withdrawn. The group is still best described as criminal. What that word cannot capture is how much a loose, arrest-resistant network can now do to a state institution.

Analysis7 min read

America's AI chip wall now has a gate

Washington spent years blocking Nvidia's best AI chips from China. It is now licensing selected Chinese buyers for the H200 — not the end of export controls, but a different idea of what they're for.

Twelve seconds in twelve months

A humanoid robot ran the 100m faster than Usain Bolt in Beijing. The unratified time matters less than the slope of the curve behind it.

Russia decides sovereignty means building its own AI

Putin has ordered a national task force, since formalised by decree into a presidential commission, to coordinate Russia's generative AI push, framing reliance on foreign models as a security risk.

Compute as currency

Chips, models and cloud capacity are no longer ordinary exports but instruments of statecraft—granted to allies, withheld from rivals, traded for investment and alignment. Three developments in recent weeks suggest the transactional era has arrived; the harder question is how long such leverage survives being used.

Essay · Geopolitics4 min read

The Tightrope: India's Year of Hedging Everyone

In six months India bought record Russian oil, signed a landmark trade deal with Europe, thawed with China, and quietly defied Washington. Is multi-alignment a strategy — or a stress position?

Essay · Geopolitics9 min read